Election Day has come and gone and the initial vote count was completed in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here’s what we know from the preliminary results:
Labour has the highest number of party votes at 710,330 or 29.36%, but only 3,650 or 0.15% more than National
Ordinarily that would mean both parties would be entitled to about the same number of seats in Parliament, but because National is ahead in 42 electorate seats (double Labour’s 21) National has 42 seats against Labour’s 36
The Opportunity Party currently has an almost 6% share of the party vote and will be represented in the next Parliament, making them the first political party to enter Parliament that didn’t spin off from an existing political party under MMP
electorate contests have the leading candidate ahead by less than 500 votes:
Wairarapa - Mike Butterick (National) leads Kieran McAnulty (Labour) by 139 votes
Wellington Bays - Craig Renney (Labour) leads Julie Anne Genter (Greens) by 140 votes
Mt Roskill - Michael Wood (Labour) leads Carlos Cheung (National) by 262 votes
Te Tai Tokerau - Aperahama Edwards (Te Pāti Māori) leads Hūhana Lyndon (Greens) by 436 votes
Hamilton East - Ryan Hamilton (National) leads Georgie Dansey (Labour) by 456 votes
The next Parliament will be the largest on record, currently slated to be made up of 131 MPs, an overhang of 11 seats
As it stands, the current governing coalition of National, Act and New Zealand First have 67 seats in the new Parliament, meaning they are in a position to continue in government
The enrolment rate and voter turnout were both lower this election than in 2023 (93.7% and 74.6% respectively in 2026 against 94.7% and 78.2% in 2023)
From 8 November the official count takes place, which includes recounting all the votes included in the preliminary results as well as processing the approximately 399,365 special votes cast. In the past few elections the special votes have skewed towards the left bloc, meaning between Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori there has been a net gain of a couple of seats at the expense of the right bloc (National, Act and New Zealand First). However in 2023 there were 50% more special votes to count (602,488) so the same result may not necessarily follow this time around.
The official results of the election will be released on Friday 27 November. Let’s look at what might change between now and then and the likely scenarios for who will be able to form a government.
National, Act and New Zealand First retain their majority
Without a doubt the current coalition are in the box seat when it comes to forming the next government. Together they have 67 of 131 seats, one more than the minimum of 66 seats required for a majority. And although special votes don’t tend to go their way, this time around that may not be so much of a factor for two reasons. Firstly, there are far fewer special votes this time around and secondly, the only special votes that can cost National seats are candidate votes in Wairarapa and Hamilton East - National’s party vote is essentially irrelevant.
National, Act and New Zealand First drop below a majority but the left bloc plus Opportunity can only deliver a hung Parliament
It is possible that Labour flip Wairarapa and Hamilton East once the official results declared, and it is also possible that the party vote percentages move around enough that Labour or the Greens pick up one or two list seats at the expense of Act and New Zealand First. However it is also possible that those changes don’t move the dial enough to give the left bloc a path to power, and even with the support of Opportunity they can only match the total number of seats held by National, Act and New Zealand First. This scenario could actually work out well for Opportunity, as they would not be forced to choose a side and could enter into some kind of support arrangement for the right bloc in exchange for policy concessions and / or ministerial posts, thus proving the argument they have made about being able to work with right or left. They could hardly side with the left bloc and force a hung Parliament, likely causing another election where they would cop the blame and could end up missing out altogether.
National, Act and New Zealand First drop below a majority and Opportunity hold the balance of power
If special votes really skew to the left it is possible that Opportunity could be left holding the balance of power on 27 November. For a new party with little political experience this would be an unenviable position - whichever way they went they’d be joining a potentially unstable four-party arrangement. If the government they help form can’t go the distance then Opportunity could suffer the consequences at the next election. Additionally, my instinct is that the majority of Opportunity’s voters would likely prefer the party to side with the left bloc so to do anything else could risk losing support.
There is one sub-scenario here, which is that coalition talks on both the right and left fail. On the right it could be that Opportunity and New Zealand First can’t agree terms (not impossible given some of the events of the election campaign), and on the left it could be that Opportunity decides entering a governing arrangement involving Te Pāti Māori is too much of a risk given the ructions within the party over the past couple of years. In that case, as Audrey Young has hypothesised, could we see National and Labour form a grand coalition? Probably not, but there is precedent overseas.
We’ll know which of the three scenarios are in play on 27 November. Depending on the final results and the complexity of the governing arrangements required, coalition negotiations could run right through until Christmas and beyond.
While we wait for those official results, here are three questions I’m pondering:
Does the outcome of this election represent a proportional result and does our MMP system need reviewing? There will be many who are understandably concerned about National winning 6 seats more than Labour despite having a lower party vote (on preliminary results). It is also remarkable to see a major party not receive any list seats and to see them lose three senior Cabinet ministers and the Speaker of the House. At the same time Te Pāti Māori won five of the Māori electorates when on its own their share of the party vote would not have entitled them to any seats in Parliament.
To what extent did the changes to electoral law before this election impact the result? In December 2025 the current government passed legislation that, amongst other things, closed enrolment before advance voting began. The justification offered for this change was to ensure timely and efficient elections. We’ll have updated numbers once official results are released, but as it stands both enrolment and voter turnout percentages are lower than 2023.
Regardless of who leads the next government, will we see a more bipartisan approach to some issues? Whoever is Prime Minister will need to form a governing arrangement that guarantees the confidence of the House, but that does not preclude them from pursuing alternative majorities for specific legislation. A glance at the policy platforms of National and Labour shows areas of common ground in health, solar energy, KiwiSaver, housing, and social media use by teenagers so would it be unreasonable to expect the two parties to cooperate on those issues? With support for National and Labour at an historic low, showing they can get things done without their minor party partners from time to time might help shore up support in the centre.