Polling places have been open for almost two weeks already, but tomorrow is officially election day in New Zealand. I plan to write separately about this government’s decision to change the law to close the electoral roll before voting started, but casting a ballot is one of those rare moments when the power is in our hands so if you are registered to vote take the chance to have your say. 3,790,946 people are enrolled to vote in the 2026 election and as at the end of 4 November 1,440,840 people have cast their vote. Head to vote.nz to find your closest polling place.
The polls have been incredibly tight all through the election campaign and the final poll released this morning is no different, showing the left and right blocs almost equal and the Opportunity Party holding the balance of power, but only just scraping over the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament. So essentially any result is possible once the votes are tallied and who comes out on top is going to depend on several variables, including whether Opportunity reaches 5 per cent and the results of any number of general and Māori electorate contents, which will determine whether National or Te Pāti Māori create an overhang by winning more electorates than the number of seats their party vote entitles them to in Parliament.
New Zealanders have also been polled on the issues they are most concerned about and which political party they consider most capable of managing these issues. The October 2026 Ipsos Issues Monitor found the top issues facing New Zealanders were:
Inflation / cost of living (64%)
Healthcare / hospitals (45%)
Petrol prices / fuel (31%)
The economy (30%)
Unemployment (19%)
Housing / price of housing (18%)
Poverty / inequality (16%)
Crime / law and order / violence / anti-social behaviour (14%)
Climate change (12%)
Education (8%)
Immigration (8%)
Taxation (6%)
Labour are perceived to the party most capable of managing ten of these issues, with National only ahead on crime / law and order and the Green Party favoured on climate change.
Being ahead of most of the issues that matter should give the left bloc an edge, but factors like people’s attitudes to party leaders and their local MP also come into play. It’s going to be close and following the results as they come in tomorrow night will be fascinating!